Time Tuned Nifty
Time Tuned Nifty for 31 March 2016
In my last post "Nifty 23 February 2016: A Dip Before Further Rise", I had mentioned that the high may come on 28 March. However, the high may continue till 01/04 Apr and may touch 7785-7800 zone. Above this level, possibilities of further rise would strengthen.
My perceptions are that after 02 Apr, Nifty will head downwards for possibly a new low on 15-17 May 2016. The intermediate targets during this journey will be 7660/7430/7210/6970 with final low ending near or below 6660 around 15-17 May 2016.
Plan. On or after 04 Apr 2016, preferably close to 7785-7800, take covering position through 2 lots of 7400 PE of Apr expiry. Expect Nifty to touch 7420-7430 on 08-09 Apr 2016. If it does, reduce 7400 PE to 1 lot and take 2 lots of 7800 CE of May expiry. Expect retest of high to touch 7660/7720 on 23 Apr 2016. If it does, take 2 lots of 7400 PE of May expiry and hold till 15-17 May or till 6660 is reached, whichever is earlier. Confirmation of downward move will come below 7650.
All the best.
PS. I may not be able to regularly update these posts and hence an appropriate SL based on individual risk appetite may be placed by the readers. Alternately, positions may be hedged if and when things do not look as perceived.
Time Tuned Nifty for 31 March 2016
In my last post "Nifty 23 February 2016: A Dip Before Further Rise", I had mentioned that the high may come on 28 March. However, the high may continue till 01/04 Apr and may touch 7785-7800 zone. Above this level, possibilities of further rise would strengthen.
My perceptions are that after 02 Apr, Nifty will head downwards for possibly a new low on 15-17 May 2016. The intermediate targets during this journey will be 7660/7430/7210/6970 with final low ending near or below 6660 around 15-17 May 2016.
Plan. On or after 04 Apr 2016, preferably close to 7785-7800, take covering position through 2 lots of 7400 PE of Apr expiry. Expect Nifty to touch 7420-7430 on 08-09 Apr 2016. If it does, reduce 7400 PE to 1 lot and take 2 lots of 7800 CE of May expiry. Expect retest of high to touch 7660/7720 on 23 Apr 2016. If it does, take 2 lots of 7400 PE of May expiry and hold till 15-17 May or till 6660 is reached, whichever is earlier. Confirmation of downward move will come below 7650.
All the best.
PS. I may not be able to regularly update these posts and hence an appropriate SL based on individual risk appetite may be placed by the readers. Alternately, positions may be hedged if and when things do not look as perceived.
Thanks a lot Sir !
ReplyDeleteTHANKS SIR...........
ReplyDeleteEntered shorts at the tick of 7747. May go up once more for 7750-7756. The close today may be at high. If close is below 7746, there is a high possibility that the markets will open tomorrow with a gap down and rise again during run up to the policy announcement.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the charts, it appears that either the RBI Governor will disappoint or the effects of his action are already factored in. Needless to say, that if the Governor throws in a surprise, the markets are even ready for that. 7856 will remain the extreme SL for the shorts initiated for now.
Good day Falcon sir, Thiagu here from chennai.Thanks a lot for ur views & blogs.
ReplyDeleteJust a small request from my side: In spite of ur busy schedule, kindly spare some time to give ur views & updates regularly. My humble request is that, even if u cant write in a new analysis report, it doesn't matter. Atleast kindly update about ur views through comments here. Respect ur views a lot and supports us in our confidence & trades. Daily i open ur blog just to check for new updates from u. I also sent an mail. Kindly response.
Please keep updating ur views in comments section regularly,as brief as possible if not a new report. Our intention is to learn and gain from ur views. Thank you Brother. Thank you sharing ur valuable time & views for us.
Sir,
ReplyDelete"......Expect Nifty to touch 7420-7430 on 08-09 Apr 2016. If it does, reduce 7400 PE to 1 lot and take 2 lots of 7800 CE of May expiry...." Sir time for down move done but level not done. So shall we go long as per dates or ??
Thanks a lot ..
Waiting for ur update sir
ReplyDeleteAmitabh, I think I have stated on numerous occasions that the time is more important for me.
ReplyDeleteThere are no updates. Original plan stands.
I may have miscalculated the date for the high due to high number of holidays. Readers may note that the high will be 6 trading sessions from today (inclusive).
ReplyDeleteSir,so 22nd high can be in the range of7785 to 7800?
Delete7785-7800 was extreme range for initiating shorts on 4th. It has no significance now.
Delete6 trading days 12,13,18,20,21,22. So Friday 22nd can be high ..
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot for guidance !
Regards,
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThank you for ur update sir.. Please keep updating ur views for the welfare of ur loyal followers.
ReplyDeleteOnly one clarification, the high u talking about which will happen after 6 days .....
is it the high before the big fall (6660) which u say in report ?
Or the temp. high of 7785-7800 ? Respects.
7785-7800 was for 4th and not now. So was 7856. If you took positions as given in the plan, hold onto it till 22nd.
DeleteSir as we saw nifty high of 7864today dies that mean we close shorts as per your stoploss 7856?
ReplyDeletePlease refer to reply to Mr Thiagu above.
DeleteIf it crosses 7870 on Monday, 8600-8700 will become a very high possibility. If it remains below 7860 or dips below 7860 (after rising above 7870) and sustains, 6660 could be a high possibility. Draw the channels and TLs and use them as reference for decision making.
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot sir
ReplyDeleteWhat next?
ReplyDeleteWe have a close above 7870. Should we look forward for 8000 or even more?
ReplyDeleteGood day all, SGX hitting 8000. Seems bulls are on a Mad Run.
ReplyDeletePersonally, i feel this bull run is fake. But fake or real, numbers matters & 8000 on screen.
So as Falcon'ji has explained previously, we must look for a high on 22nd of april i guess,
but problem is, his Monday criteria of closing below/above 7860 going in favor of bulls again. Lets wait for his updates & views.
Falcon sir, waiting for ur new update. Thank you.
8130/8200/8350 could be possible by 22nd. Advise would be to take 7800 PEs via Jul Expiry on or after 22nd and wait for a backtest of the same TL. Once the TL hits, take CEs of current to Jul expiry and wait till Jul. Mid May should see the backtest of this TL.
ReplyDeleteChances of a new low have gone out of window with the breach and sustenance of the UTL of the falling channel. Nifty may now be headed for a new high or atleast a test of the previous high. The event may occur in March 2017.
ReplyDeleteHolding below 7895 will call for a dip to 7850-7810 band.
ReplyDeleteThe high may be established tomorrow between 1400-1415 hrs and has a possibility to touch 8120. Irrespective of the levels, the long positions should be closed after 1415 hrs. PEs of may expiry may be added at own discretion.
ReplyDelete